The lithium battery industry is accelerating its development and upgrading

In order to further strengthen the management of the lithium battery industry and promote the high-quality development of the industry, the Electronic Information Department of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology recently issued the "Standardized Conditions for the Lithium Battery Industry (2024 Edition)" (Draft for Comments) (hereinafter referred to as the "Standardized Conditions") and the "Management Measures for Standardized Announcements in the Lithium Battery Industry (2024 Edition)" (Draft for Comments). Both of the above documents are revised from the 2021 version.

Industry insiders believe that the current lithium battery industry is in a period of deep adjustment. In the future, cultivating high-quality production capacity and continuously improving product quality will be the focus of the lithium battery industry.

■ Improved performance requirements

In recent years, the scale of the lithium battery industry has gradually grown, and product costs have also dropped significantly. Data show that the total output of lithium batteries in China will exceed 940GWh in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 25%, and the total output value of the industry will exceed 1.4 trillion yuan. In the battery segment, the output of consumer, power, and energy storage lithium batteries in 2023 will be 80GWh, 675GWh, and 185GWh respectively, and the installed capacity of lithium batteries (including new energy vehicles and new energy storage) will exceed 435GWh; the International Energy Agency recently released the "Battery and Energy Security Transformation" report, stating that in the past less than 15 years, battery costs have fallen by more than 90%.

With the continuous expansion of the industry scale and the improvement of downstream requirements for product performance, battery product quality and technological innovation are becoming more and more critical to the healthy development of the industry. The reporter noticed that compared with the 2021 version, the "Specification Conditions" put forward higher requirements for the technology and product performance of lithium batteries, and the requirements for power batteries have increased more than energy storage batteries.

The "Specification Conditions" clearly state that the energy density of energy-type single cells using ternary materials (nickel cobalt manganese oxide) for large-power lithium batteries is ≥230Wh/kg, and the energy density of battery packs is ≥165Wh/kg; the energy density of energy-type single cells using other materials such as lithium iron phosphate is ≥165Wh/kg, and the energy density of battery packs is ≥120Wh/kg. The power density of power-type single cells is ≥1500W/kg, and the power density of battery packs is ≥1200W/kg. The cycle life of single cells is ≥1500 times and the capacity retention rate is ≥80%, and the cycle life of battery packs is ≥1000 times and the capacity retention rate is ≥80%.

In terms of energy storage lithium batteries, the "Standard Conditions" clearly stipulate that the energy density of single cells is ≥155Wh/kg, and the energy density of battery packs is ≥110Wh/kg; the cycle life of single cells is ≥6000 times and the capacity retention rate is ≥80%, and the cycle life of battery packs is ≥5000 times and the capacity retention rate is ≥80%.

"Product performance indicators are a benchmark for the development of an industry. my country's lithium battery technology level is relatively strong, and some indicators are already at the global leading level." Zhang Xiang, director of the Vodafone Digital Vehicle International Cooperation Research Center, believes that the release of the "Standard Conditions" is conducive to promoting the quality upgrade of my country's lithium battery industry.

However, the "Standard Conditions" is a guiding document to encourage technological progress and standardized development in the industry. It does not have the pre-emptive and mandatory nature of administrative approval, and is applicable to lithium battery, positive electrode material, negative electrode material, diaphragm, and electrolyte production enterprises.

■ Adhere to high-quality development

Against the background of supply and demand mismatch and the gradual emergence of signs of profit decline, the lithium battery industry has changed its previous high-speed development trend and returned to rational development. Since last year, many companies have suspended or terminated lithium battery projects, and their attitude towards expansion has become more cautious. Under the general trend of reducing costs and increasing efficiency in the industry this year, competition in all links of the lithium battery industry chain has intensified. Zhang Xiang believes that the concentration of the lithium battery industry may further increase in the future. Taking power lithium batteries as an example, the current domestic more than 50 battery suppliers may be reduced to about 10 in the future.

It is worth noting that for the industrial layout and project establishment of lithium batteries, the "Standardized Conditions" proposes to guide enterprises to reduce manufacturing projects that simply expand production capacity, strengthen technological innovation, improve product quality, and reduce production costs; the annual expenses for research and development and process improvement shall not be less than 3% of the main business income, and the actual output in the previous year at the time of declaration shall not be less than 50% of the actual production capacity in the same year.

The above-mentioned statement on production capacity is not the first time. In fact, the "Standardized Conditions for the Lithium-ion Battery Industry" was first issued in 2015, and then revised twice in 2018 and 2021. For the industrial layout and project establishment requirements of lithium batteries, both the 2018 version and the 2021 version clearly and strictly control the simple expansion of production capacity, and the relevant description of production capacity in the "Standardized Conditions" is exactly the same as the 2021 version. In the view of industry insiders, my country has always adhered to the high-quality development route for the lithium battery industry.

However, some industry insiders analyzed that the "Standard Conditions" proposed that enterprises should gradually eliminate backward production capacity and resolutely eliminate low-quality and inefficient battery projects. Previously, many industry insiders mentioned in interviews with reporters that with the intensification of industry competition, the elimination of low-end and inferior production capacity has long become one of the key points of industry development.

Huang Xiuyu, an analyst at Dongguan Securities, said that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology revised the industry standard conditions to guide technological innovation, transformation and upgrading, and promote high-quality and healthy development. It will accelerate the elimination of backward production capacity and prevent low-price disorderly competition, which will help leading enterprises with technological advantages and high-quality production capacity to improve capacity utilization and profit recovery.

■ Enhance the international competitiveness of enterprises

The lithium battery industry has a strong cyclicality. Considering the two major application scenarios of power and energy storage, the long-term development trend of the lithium battery industry will not change. Overall, enterprises should continue to increase their R&D efforts and make further breakthroughs in technology route selection, material innovation, industrial chain layout, application scenarios, cost reduction and other aspects.

In the view of industry insiders, the release of the "Standard Conditions" has pointed out the direction for the development of the lithium battery industry. The improvement of lithium battery product performance, the reduction of costs, and the elimination of backward production capacity are all conducive to the industry to avoid low-quality and low-price competition. The reporter noticed that in addition to higher requirements for product performance, the "Standard Conditions" also mentioned relevant requirements for green and low-carbon. For example, enterprises should carry out carbon footprint accounting of lithium batteries in accordance with relevant policies and standards; encourage enterprises to increase resource recovery and comprehensive utilization design during the product research and development stage, and strengthen the comprehensive management of resources throughout the life cycle of lithium battery production, sales, use, and comprehensive utilization.

"The revised draft focuses on product quality and low-carbon environmental protection, and actively paves the way for enterprises to go overseas, which is conducive to improving the international competitiveness of enterprises and is generally beneficial to leading enterprises." Huang Xiuyu believes.

At present, facing the situation of intensified domestic competition, lithium battery companies are targeting overseas markets with huge growth. "Everyone has basically the same opinion and wants to go overseas. However, overseas certification standards, market demand and after-sales difficulties are different from those in the domestic market. The overall requirements will be higher, and we will not be able to have too many opportunities for trial and error. Therefore, the quality requirements for products going overseas will be higher, otherwise it will be difficult to bear the after-sales costs." Yan Longlong, assistant dean of Penghui Energy Storage and Power Battery Research Institute, told reporters.